Week-long Welcomings from Moosylvania: Sept. 25th through Oct. 1st

September 24, 2016 JanF Community 114

Welcome to The Moose Pond! The Welcomings posts give the Moose, old and new, a place to visit and share words about the weather, life, the world at large and the small parts of Moosylvania that we each inhabit.

Welcomings will be posted at the start of each week (every Sunday morning). To find the posts, just bookmark this link and Voila! (which is Moose for “I found everyone!!”).

The format is simple: each day, the first moose to arrive on-line will post a comment welcoming the new day and complaining (or bragging!) about their weather. Or mentioning an interesting or thought provoking news item. Or simply checking in.

So … what’s going on in your part of Moosylvania?

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NOTE: The comments page will now split off after 20 or so left margin comments with the most recent comments on the current page. To see the older comments, scroll to the bottom of the page and use the link.

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48 Comments

  1. Good “morning”, Motley Meese! The week begins …

    Morning low of 55 in Madison WI with an expected daytime high of 77. The forecast calls for a chance of thunderstorms.

    Have a great day, all y’alls!!

  3. Good Sunday morning Meese – brrrrr

    It’s 44 degrees here in Saugerties – the heat is on …going up to 68 later today.

    Am headed to the kitchen to make more coffee – and a hot bowl of oatmeal!

    • I just got my pot of coffee and have settled in to scan the news (once) and then get caught up on work projects. I was glad for yesterday’s break from politics with the grand opening of the NMAAHC – I watched it live from start to finish and followed it on Twitter.

      It is difficult to stay focused on what is important when the political press keeps ginning up new (and resuscitating old!) controversies. I do think that the debate will be important – reports are that the debate will draw 100 million viewers and there are 27 million voters still undecided. Reuters/Ipsos reports that most of those voters are white women without college educations, probably leaning Trump along with other white non-college educated voters but possibly resisting because Trump is so vulgar and so clearly unsuited for the job. I hope that many of them watch. If Hillary can demonstrate to these folks that she is capable and caring, it will be game over. I still predict that there will only be one debate.

      • Don’t know how many voters will “decide” because of the debate. Some may use the debate to justify what they already think.

        A big chunk of folks – mostly male – will be watching football.

        Not sure that Trump can resist other debates – he loves the spotlight – even when it hurts him.

        • History shows that debates have not changed anyone’s votes since 1960. And mostly the Kennedy-Nixon debate was people seeing for the first time how the candidates acted and reacted. There is no one who has not seen Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump somewhere on TV over the past 15 months.

          Josh Marshall at TPM has a debate post up. I disagree with him on many of the points but to the extent that people do tune in, this point is critical:

          Trump is the kid telling the teacher the dog ate his homework. Then the teacher points out he has no dog. But he’s not going to apologize or come clean. He’s just going to keep talking.

          If that turns people off, if his unfocused meandering sounds an alarm (even if he doesn’t become unhinged), that could persuade people who were on the fence. Remember, Republicans are telling their constituents that Congress will keep a rein on a scary President Trump, don’t worry your pretty little heads! But if it becomes obvious that in the instances where a president can act without Congress, Trump sounds crazy, that could tip some undecided – or those who realize that Ryan and McConnell are lying to them.

          We shall see!

  4. You know, liberal pundits (and berners) get upset at Hillary for reaching out to Republicans. But this woman now votes for Democrats because of that outreach. You don’t have to compromise any of your principles to want things to be better for everyone, not just Democrats:

      • Nothing wrong with once being a Republican! I was there but had my epiphany when the mask was pulled off the forced birth crowd back in the 90s. How any woman of child-bearing age could be a Republican is beyond me.

        I think we are going to see a party realignment from the fault lines exposed in this election. I would prefer Roxie – and Elizabeth Warren – be on our side. Smart women will be right there with President Hillary Clinton, delivering on the promise of better outcomes for everyone.

      • I wish it could be a commercial but it is over 2 minutes long! It made me tear up also … and when she said “She’s our girl” – wow.

        • I teared up, too. I bet they could edit it to a commercial length. It wouldn’t flow as well, but it would get the point across.

  5. Good morning, Meese! It’s 8:55 a.m. on Sunday morning, another bright, beautiful, rainless day. Current temp. is 55 F. now, going up to 73 low-slung degrees F., thank Goddess. We’ve turned off the a.c. and opened the windows.

    Words cannot describe how much I missed morning check-in at the Moose while I was away. If wifi had been more widely available, I’d have tried to check in, believe me. It makes a difference to the way one views the world, knowing one has good friends East, West, South, and Middle in the USA.

    Yesterday I didn’t check in because I had to be at the training by 9 a.m. I got there on time but a lot of people were still straggling in at 9:45. The training was good, but my attempt to register voters was a DISASTER! I’d thought I’d be sitting at a little table with one other person and that potential voters would walk up to us. Uh-uh. I was supposed to pick a location, walk around with a clipboard, and accost people. This kind of thing does not come easily to introverts. Half the people I approached were already registered. A few couldn’t register because they weren’t citizens yet, so I smiled and said cheerily, “Next year!” and asked them to ask their registered-voter friends to vote in their honor.

    Anyway, I didn’t get a single voter to register. I couldn’t even turn back the clipboard because some wretched festival or other was on at Lake Anne and there was NO getting into the parking lot! I’ll have to take it back either later today or tomorrow.

    I’ve tried phonebanking, and hated it; tried canvassing, and hated it because people were so rude; and now this. I need to find another way to help. I’ve been donating, but perhaps I’ll have to bring homemade cookies and cider to the phonebankers.

    Anyway, that’s my sad story. Have an overwhelming number of tasks to perform, so I’m telling myself: go to the gym, dear, then come back and write ONE scene of your story, write ONE of the many emails you owe your friends, clean out ONE shelf in the pantry cupboard, and so on.

    Hubby got depressed this morning because the WaPo said the race was “neck-and-neck.” I’ve learned not to believe anything in the WaPo, so I’ll continue to be optimistic. In the meantime, a big hug to all Moose friends, and have a great day!

    • The race is “neck-and-neck” in the newspapers and on TV because that is how they sell ads. If our voters show up in the states where we are ahead, we will win.

      I feel your pain, Diana: “I was supposed to pick a location, walk around with a clipboard, and accost people. This kind of thing does not come easily to introverts. ” I have phone banked and canvassed and now I can’t do either so I am not sure what to do. I am not fit enough to spend a day walking around and hanging doorknob literature. I could stuff envelopes but no one has envelopes any more – contract firms put the addresses on glossy flyers and mail them out. I am too poor to donate! If you find something that campaigns need that I can do, let me know.

  6. Slept in, nice rest. Though did have to yell at someone jabbering outside my window around 11. Apartment living. We have a cold front — highs only around 89. Brr!

    The news is full of the debate, and the horrifying incidents in Tulsa & Charlotte. So I have it mostly on mute. I did watch the released police video once. Can’t any more.

    It’s my boy’s 40th band birthday. There’s 2 fan-organized parties, at the Rock Hall of Fame in Cincinnati & one in Dublin. I’ve watched lots of periscopes of them. And yes, my brain is playing music to me.

    Beautiful video — I wish it was a commercial. And I want some wine ice cream.

  7. Mid 60s at dawn heading for upper 80s but tonight’s low is supposed to be in the mid 50s and the rest of the week lows in the 40s with highs in the 70s. I can live with that! :) Sunny at the moment but clouds are around, just not blocking the sun right now. Got just over 12 KWHs yesterday, hoping for same today.

    Diana, for things to do to help, first find the local HQ. Find out what hours they’d like to be open, see if they are, and if they’re not volunteer for that shift. Find out when they’re doing phone banking and bring cookies. See if the Public Library will allow you to set up a Voter Registration table (can’t bring political stuff – or even wear party/candidate-specific stuff – but they’ll usually allow you to register voters). There are things you can do, even if not what other people have in mind. (And actually most of us aren’t getting a lot of voters registered – I was at the Market yesterday from 8 – 11 and got 5, at Dem HQ from noon – 4 and picked up one more. Most folks who are interested in voting have already registered.)

    Waiting for the soup to come to a boil so I can stir in the thickener and “bottle” it, which it’s about to do. Will come back and re-read the Museum opening stuff when I can. Also head over to GOS to read Denise’s diary. Bright the day, Meeses. {{{HUGS}}}

  8. Morning all! Still hot and now pretty dry here – I may have to run the sprinklers this week, but it looks like our heat may be moderating, highs down to the mid-80’s instead of 90, and at night, lows below 70. That’s our version of fall!

    I’m already sick of debate coverage and it hasn’t happened yet – and I’m depressed at the polls showing Hillary is mistrusted almost as much as Trump. That is SOLELY a creation of our media, no question – she has not lied, does what she says she will, and has her whole life. Trump, on the other hand, is a proven pathological liar – yet somehow many in the public see them as nearly the same. The New York Times editorial board writes a strong endorsement of Hillary, but the papers political reporters clearly dislike her (one of them was a Republican congressional staffer for years, so it’s no wonder I guess) and that’s what drives their coverage. It’s maddening.

    Ugh, well, I’m going to mostly ignore it if I can, and t ry to get these phone calls in for the local State Senate candidate I promised to help. I finally figured out how to turn off caller ID on my cell phone, so I can make “private caller” calls – it might make people not want to pick up the phone, but I’d rather not broadcast my number all over.

    Everyone have a great day!

    • The horse race and process stories are all they have. Expect them to say that Trump won just to find a way to prolong the clicks. The pundits are sad that this race is pretty much over and that all they will have to show for it is another 20% drop in their rating on Trust.

  9. Good morning, 58 and cloudy in Bellingham. We had dinner with our son and his family last night and time with the grand girls and Maggie (our grand dog) was good for my worried mind. They are enjoying school so we had lots to talk about.

    The tree firm will be here early tomorrow morning to start working on the maple trees and the one fir tree. But my relief re our tree dilemma is tempered by our neighbors decision to remove their large maple tree. The trunk of that tree is split (and has been for years) but the city’s action with us has made them nervous. The tree provides shelter for our back garden and privacy from the sidewalk behind our house so we will really miss it. They plan to re do the landscape, but a 100+ yr old tree is irreplaceable.

    So my election angst and my sadness re the shooting at the local mall is focused on trees today. Deep breaths are healthy, but :::sighing::: is becoming annoying so I’m trying to remember the difference!

  10. Good morning, meese! Monday …

    It is 57 degrees in Madison with the expected daytime high of 63. Sunny skies this morning with a few clouds wandering in later in the day.

    Debate Day! After reading the debate doomsday stories for the past week (“THE STAKES COULDN’T BE HIGHER!!”) the likelihood of my watching the debate has gone down. News reports suggest that 75 to 100 million people will be watching and that 50% of them will make their decision based on the debate. First, I think the number of people who will be watching is probably overstated. Second, I know that the polls say that 20% of voters are undecided but I think people are lying. I think they are decided but not committing to a candidate – no one wants to admit, even to themselves, that they will vote for a candidate they don’t particularly like. It is from both sides and the 20% will likely split in the end or stay home, negating their impact. In normal election years, the undecided is about 4%.

    I think that the majority of the people watching are partisans hoping to see their candidate land a blow or their candidate’s opponent stumble. It is the sporting event for those who don’t want to watch Monday Night Football. For what it is worth, politics as sports disgusts me – people’s lives are at stake!! I hope Hillary Clinton’s calm, intelligent demeanor convinces the leaners that she would be the best person to sit in the Oval Office.

    If I do watch it (it will run past my bedtime and I need my beauty sleep), I will watch it on CSPAN (preview link):

    Today is first day of early voting and I will go down to City Hall and do the most important thing in this election year – vote.

    See all y’all later!

    • Like you – I don’t believe in all those reported “undecideds”. A lot of people don’t want to say who they are voting for when pollsters call them,

      • And this year, even more so. For one thing, folks aren’t sure that the people calling are really pollsters and don’t want to be badgered and/or targeted in some way for their responses. And even if it is a pollster, people are keeping their decisions close to their vest: I am seeing fewer yard signs than I have ever seen in the past. I can literally count on one hand the Clinton-Kaine signs I have seen and even driving in rural Wisconsin the Trump signs are few and far between. Fine with me – I don’t want to know which of my neighbors wants me to die.

  11. Hello, Meese! This is a morning of soft gray skies—the very air seems gray and still. Current temp. is 63 F., going up to 70 F. It may rain. Then again, in this drought-stricken little corner of Northern Virginia, it may not rain. I hope it does.

    Thank Goddess I have 1,000 chores to do this week, it’s going to keep me from brooding. I refuse to watch anything other than C-SPAN tonight, and I’ll probably follow El Mito’s blog as I don’t tweet. I want someone to tell me Sam Wang still predicts a Hillary victory.

    All my donations, including Doctors Without Borders and Hillary, have been wiped out because I closed my PayPal account before I left town. PayPal doesn’t make it easy! I am so disgusted with them that I’ll never use that facility again. From now on I’ll use my newly issued credit card to donate and believe me, I’ll think twice, thrice, or even four times before using it.

    Wishing all of Moosylvania a good day!

      • The problem with the talking-head networks is that even if they don’t have commercial breaks for punditry, they will have chyrons and you know darn well they will include bullcrap instapolls. No thank you!!

    • I think that PayPal is also owned by a Trump supporter – making it an even worse place to use! I have one vendor who requires that I use PayPal as a conduit and I use the Credit Card process there – PayPal somehow charges my credit card but I am not using a PayPal account per se. I can live with that. I don’t think I will be needing to use that vendor any longer as it is related to a part of my business that I am phasing out.

      This morning Sam Wang tweeted out (with a YouGov poll) that this is one of the most stable elections for polling over the past 60 years. Nate is having an argument with all the stats only guys like Sam – he is trying to set our hair on fire for whatever reason. Sam has this today:

      As of September 26, 8:04AM EDT:
      Snapshot (147 state polls): Clinton 291, Trump 247 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +1.4%
      Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 68%, Bayesian 79%

  12. Rain & somewhat cooler temps. Still wearing capris & sandals. It’s 73 now & that’s supposed to be the high for the day. Looking forward to the debate being over. (actually, looking forward to the election being over, but one step at a time)

    Brain is, of course, playing U2 at me. When I went to youtube to pick a song, I saw this video of their “Beatles on the rooftop” moment. Fond memories.

  13. 59 at dawn and still is but heading for mid 70s – rest of week is supposed to be 70s/40s – and sunny. Got a little bit of rain after dark but unfortunately didn’t wait until after dark to cloud up so I only got 8.9 KWHs yesterday. Hoping to get 12+ today.

    Not watching the debate no way no how – I can’t stand the sound of that man’s voice regardless of what he’s saying. I’ll probably hang out with the Hillary live bloggers, usually El Mito – at least until bedtime. :)

    Soloing and got some stuff sitting on my desk so I’d best get to it. Bright the day, Meeses. {{{HUGS}}}

    • I think I’m gonna hang out with El Mito too – and keep playing the ranchera for Hillary from Vincente Fernadez in the background – reminding me that Hillary’s voters of color are being ignored or distorted in all this horse-race polling frenzy.

      • {{{Denise}}} – there’s a lot of what I hope is “white privilege” assumption that people of color won’t turn out, at least not in significant enough numbers to outweigh the white (male) vote. Or maybe that’s a “white male desperate hope” that people of color cannot outweigh the white male vote. But hanging out in El Mito’s live blog and listening to good and hopeful music is the better choice. :)

  14. Good morning, 50 and mostly sunny in Bellingham. The tree trimming firm will be here soon so my election nerves will have a distraction today.

    I know I will watch some of the debate…..just don’t know how long I’ll last before yew aversion makes me find the mute button and look away!

  15. Morning all. Hot again but again a little touch of cool in the breeze, so maybe we’ll really cool down a bit next week.

    I’m trying to stay away from TV today, and I definitely cannot watch the debate live – I think I’ll record it, in case there are parts of it I want to see from reports on El Mito’s blogging and Twitter. It’s so depressing that a majority of whites in this country are prepared to vote for Trump – I feel the way I did in 1980 (except worse) as I watched my countrymen vote for Reagan, a vicious buffoon who was clearly opposed to everything I held dear. I felt like this was not my country any more. And I fought Reagan’s goons at HHS and then on the Hill for the next 8 years as they tried to dismantle every government program that helped people or the environment, including Social Security, both old age and disability. People forget what that was like back then, but I don’t – Democrats only had the House, not the Senate or White House, and Tip O’Neill fought ferociously to keep Reagan from dismantling the social safety net. Reagan literally said, to my boss Dan Rostenkowski, on the way to signing the 1983 Amendments that refinanced Social Security, “Ok, I’ll sign this today, but you know, one of these days we HAVE to get rid of this program.” Get. Rid. of Social Security.

    Fast Forward 36 years, and what’s going to save us is that the electorate will be probably 30% or more POC. They, along with the minority of white voters who are sane and not racist, will NOT vote for Trump – I have to believe that and I do. And I think the polls, while not wrong, are underestimating the power of the Obama coalition coming out for Hillary. I read something yesterday that strikes me as very true – this election looks something like what happened in 2000 to Al Gore, when a press corps that didn’t like him basically campaigned against him, and we all know how that turned out. The editorial page of the NYTimes can pontificate all it wants about how accomplished and intelligent Hillary is – the political reporting of that paper and almost all others has been a disgrace, dominated by a few reporters (some of whom were Republican staffers on the Hill before turning to their version of journalism) who have succeeded in painting a wholly false picture of Hillary as an untrustworthy liar. It’s disgusting.

    So I will follow stuff today on twitter, but I can’t watch those talking heads any more. And I know tonight, Trump will be declared the winner if he stays upright and doesn’t drool or physically attack anyone. Meanwhile, Hillary would have to be perfect, by 5 different measures of perfection, to merely break even with him. Arrgh.

    Nonetheless, I too believe David Plouffe and Sam Wang – I can’t believe Pennsylvania, for example, is really that close, among other states. I’m with Armando’s comments on the polls – he points out the Bloomberg polls shows Trump running 3 points worse than Romney with whites and Clinton getting only 67% of the non- white vote which he says is just wrong. His take:

    A-As comprise roughly 1/2 of nonwhites, Latinos a shade less. Trump get 2-5% of A-As.hes not getting 35% of the rest.— Armando (@armandodkos) September 26, 2016

    I believe that, and will continue to do so.

    Ok, everyone have a good day! Go get him, Hillary!

    • Excellent analysis!!

      I read the Plouffe interview and a good Tweet storm by Ian Millhiser and feel very confident heading into the final stretch. Hillary has a very good campaign staff, a very good ground game … and us! :)

  16. Good morning, meese! Tuesday …

    It is 54 degrees in Madison with an expected daytime high of 59. Sunny in the morning but clouding up this afternoon and possibly some showers into evening.

    I did not watch any of the debate but followed the whole thing on Twitter. From the sounds of it, Hillary did a good job and the vulgar talking yam did not land any blows or show a presidential side that will make people change their perceptions of him. That is a win for us. There was really no Big Win for Hillary; she is the front runner and debates are really about openings created for challengers. None emerged.

    I am going to read some of the commentary after I get a few early morning projects done.

    See all y’all later!

  17. I watched -the debate on C-Span with the hubby – reading El Mito live-blog on my phone and checking in to twitter from time to time.

    Hubby was gob-smacked that Trump is even stupider than could be imagined. Hillary was relaxed, firm, prepared, laughed at Trump’s attempts to score – dealt with his endless interruptions with grace.

    Trump looked like he was on drugs. Husband – who works in mental health field said Trump reminds him of clients who have personality disorder.

    • For people seeing Trump for such an extended period of time instead of just sound bites from the news, it must have been startling.

      I read one article that suggested that a lot of millennials who believed that Trump=Clinton came away persuaded that we weren’t kidding when we said that this election is critical to our future. If there was a single disqualifying moment for them, I hope they realize that “Climate Change is a Chinese hoax” directly impacts them.

      I watched a few clips of the debate this morning and I am glad of my decision to not watch it live. I found a transcript and will read it just so I am tapped into the campaign’s narrative. Must get my talking points sharpened! :)

  19. Good morning, Meese! We woke up much too early to find that it hasn’t rained very much at all. Bummer. We are cursed in this drought-stricken corner of NoVa.

    However, it was a BIG NIGHT! She killed him. It’s over. Someone wittily said, after looking at Hillary’s red suit, that “Hillary came dressed in the blood of the men who have underestimated her.”

    She got in some zingers! I was so proud of her. Even the effing pundits had to admit she won, although little troggy Mark Shields said she “didn’t connect emotionally.” That’s his perspective from his white privileged entitled male status. She sure as h-ll connected with ME, and with every other woman watching who’s been condescended to, interrupted, and talked over.

    The biggest surprise was that Lester Holt’s questions weren’t as biased against Hillary as I expected. After Matt Lauer, though, anyone would seem to be an improvement. Holt was of course helpless during the first half against Trumpy-Bumpy’s constant interruptions and hogging of the microphone. However, he seemed to regain his mojo a bit during the second half.

    We really will have to have naps today. For me it’ll be a day of writing, responding to more emails, and going to the gym to make up for a week of no exercise at all.

    Wishing everyone at the Pond a good day!

    • I finally got through reading the commentary on the debate.

      Diana, I am sure that you will “appreciate” that one Republican congressman tweeted out that “She comes across as my bitchy wife/mother”. Yikes! Why do Republican men hate their wives and mothers? Is it what causes their Republicanism or is it that being a Republican requires that you disavow your humanity? I am sure that this misogyny is also lurking in the hearts of some Democrats as well; I just hope that those men can overcome that reflex and vote with us and for our future.

    • Holt asked many of the questions Trump didn’t want – on his taxes, and birther-shit – I’m actually glad he let Trump bluster on and over Hillary while she stood there smiling
      All in all he did a much better job than I expected (bet he was thinking of the critiques of Matt Lauer when crafting his queries)

      • Lester Holt did not have a high bar – Lauer had put it on the ground. While I was watching Twitter, at one point people were asking “Where’s Lester Holt?” I assume that was when he let Trump cut in and run on. I think silently that Hillary was using the “Please proceed” strategy. If you look at some of the most devastating ads, they are Trump quotes. He makes the case against his own candidacy every time he opens his mouth.

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